The construction market hasn't stopped. It's just been waiting.
If you've spent much of this year putting recruitment plans on hold, you're definitely not alone. We've spoken to plenty of construction businesses that have done exactly the same. Some have decided to stretch the team they've already got a little further, others have held off replacing leavers or delayed bringing in additional labour until there's a bit more certainty in the market.
And if you're looking for your next role, you've probably noticed the other side of the equation. Fewer vacancies, longer hiring processes and more competition for the jobs that are available.
To put it simply - it's been a cautious year.
The latest Glenigan Construction Industry Forecast 2026–2028 confirms that feeling wasn't just perception. Construction output is expected to dip by around 1% during 2026 before bouncing back with 11% growth in 2027 and a further 4% in 2028. Those figures are encouraging, but they're not the most interesting part of the story - the real story is what happens between now and then.
Why this matters
Construction has always been an industry that moves quickly. Projects are delayed, then funding gets approved, frameworks are awarded and suddenly, a business that wasn't recruiting six weeks ago needs an entire project team yesterday.
After more than 37 years in the industry, we've seen it time and time again. When the market turns, nobody wants to be the last one to realise it, yet that's often exactly what happens. Businesses wait for confidence to return, then everyone starts recruiting at the same time. And by then, the best people are already in work.
As Glenigan's Economics Director, Allan Wilen, put it, once conditions improve there'll be"no time for hanging around."
It's a simple message, but an important one - whether you're hiring people or looking for your next role, preparation starts now, not once the recovery is obvious.
Where the market is heading
Not every sector is following the same path.
Commercial office construction is expected to be one of this year's strongest performers, with activity forecast to increase by 21% as demand grows for modern, energy-efficient office space. That means continued demand for project managers, fit-out specialists, M&E professionals and commercial construction expertise.
Education and healthcare tell a slightly different story. Rather than a short spike in activity, both sectors are expected to deliver steady, sustained growth over the next few years as investment continues in schools, hospitals and public infrastructure. For employers operating in these markets, this isn't simply about filling today's vacancies, it's about building teams that can support long-term growth.
Other sectors are taking a breather. Housebuilding, civils, infrastructure and industrial construction have all experienced a quieter 2026 than many anticipated. But that's where the forecast becomes particularly interesting.
Glenigan expects civils and infrastructure to grow by around 15% in 2027, industrial and logistics by 16%, and private housebuilding by 13%.
In recruitment terms, that's a significant shift in a relatively short period of time.
The businesses that plan ahead usually win
One conversation we've had repeatedly this year has gone something like this:
"We're okay for now. We'll recruit once things pick up."
It's understandable, the problem is that every other employer is thinking exactly the same thing. When demand returns, recruitment becomes more competitive almost overnight. The site manager you've been hoping to hire already has another offer, the quantity surveyor you've been trying to attract has accepted a role elsewhere and skilled tradespeople rarely stay available for long once projects begin moving again.
That's why talent pipelines matter. Keeping in touch with good people, building relationships before vacancies appear and understanding where the market is heading puts employers in a far stronger position than starting every search from scratch.
And what does this mean for candidates?
If you're considering your next move, this forecast is worth paying attention to.
The strongest opportunities over the next few years are likely to come from sectors with longer-term investment behind them, particularly education, healthcare and infrastructure. These projects often offer greater stability and consistent career progression. If you work in industrial, logistics, housebuilding or commercial construction, it's also worth remembering that quieter markets don't stay quiet forever.
The people who secure the best opportunities aren't always the ones who apply first once a job goes live, they're often the people who've already built relationships with specialist recruiters, kept in touch with the market and are ready to move when the right opportunity appears. By the time some vacancies are advertised publicly, conversations have already started.
Why your recruitment partner matters
Markets like this are exactly where a good recruitment partner adds real value.
For employers, it's about more than filling today's vacancy. It's about understanding where skills are becoming scarce, keeping talent engaged during quieter periods and being ready to move quickly when demand increases.
For candidates, it's about gaining access to opportunities you may never see advertised, receiving honest advice about where the market is heading and finding roles that genuinely fit your long-term ambitions rather than simply your next pay cheque.
Recruitment shouldn't start when everyone else has realised they need to recruit - that's often when you've already lost valuable time.
What's to come?
Construction may have felt cautious throughout much of 2026 so far, but the outlook is becoming much more positive. The forecast suggests we're moving towards a market where demand returns quickly and competition for good people returns with it.
So whether you're planning next year's workforce or thinking about your next career move, now is a good time to start the conversation.
At Thorn Baker, we've spent more than 37 years helping employers and candidates navigate markets exactly like this and we know that the best recruitment decisions are rarely made in a panic.
If you'd like to talk about what Glenigan's latest forecast could mean for your business, or for your career, we'd love to have that conversation - it's always easier to prepare before the market moves, than to catch up after it has.
Source: Glenigan Construction Industry Forecast 2026–2028